For the first time since I became old enough to write down my abc's, India is faced with a situation wherein the outcome of it's strategic decisions will affect the flow of events in the entire world, not just in the south Asian region. So far, India has been able to befriend two enemy states (read Iran and Israel), with the assumption that their strife is their internal matter and does not concern India. However, post the attack on the Israeli defense attache's wife(promptly blamed by Israel on Iran) India has now found itself in a situation where it may never have wanted itself. India may well have to choose a side now - will it be Iran or Israel.
Both nations are strategically very important to India. Choosing any over the other may mean permanent losses of the resources supplied by that nation to India. However, this is a chance for India to assert itself on the international scene. USA is now lobbying hard for India to support the sanctions against Iran. This in itself speaks volumes about India's growing importance in the region and also in the entire world. Such a scenario would have been unimaginable 2 decades ago. And any attempt by India to walk the middle ground and adopt a neutral line as it always does, may seen by other nations as a sign that India lacks the political will to adopt a more significant role in world affairs. The whole situation looks to be spiraling out of control, with Israel and Iran now fighting their battles on the streets of Delhi. India is now among the last few nations of economic importance that have still not complied with the US sponsored sanctions on Iran. It shall be very interesting to see, exactly how does the Indian government handle this situation. Will India resort to pussyfooting again or will the government finally grow some backbone and take some action keeping in mind long term advantages, not short term gains.
Both Israel and Iran hold significant importance in India's long term goals. Lets start with Iran. The most important factor here is oil. India imports 12% of its crude from Iran. Several Indian refineries are geared up to process the kind of crude that Iran exports. Refitting all these refineries to process other types of crude will consume a lot of national resources. Indeed! Finding a dependable supplier at such short notice will indeed be a difficult task. Although Saudi Arabia at America's behest has offered to step in and fill the void left by the Iranians, working out a deal with them will be time consuming, and then there is the question about retrofitting the refineries to deal with Saudi oil, a herculean task! India and Iran are currently in the midst of discussing a big oil deal which involves laying a pipeline on the Arabian Sea bed. Secondly, Iran is currently India's only access point to Afghanistan, a country in who's security and stability India has a huge stake. Iran also has a shared interest along with India to prevent the Taliban from retaking Afghanistan when the US army abandons Afghanistan to it's own fate. Iran along with India had supported the Northern Alliance which were fighting the Taliban pre 1999. Thirdly, Iran, together with Afghanistan also provide India with an access to the mineral rich central Asia. India would also not be in favor of China stepping into any void left behind by India's departure. So, basically Iran is very important in the fulfillment of India's immense energy requirements, and also in meeting regional security requirements of India. And I haven't even spoken about the Sunni-Shia angle, which make Iran a natural enemy of Pakistan, a Sunni dominated country widely known for the persecution on Shia's.
And now Israel. Israel is perhaps the most important partner of India in the field of counter-terrorism. There has been unprecedented co-operation between Indian and Israeli intelligence since 1960's- an era before Israel was even allowed to open up an embassy in India. India and Israel started formal diplomatic relations only in 1992, after years of ineffective pro Arab policies. The Indian government had for years supported the Palestinian cause whole-heatedly in the hope of Arab support for India's Kashmir cause. But this policy bore no fruit, as the Arab countries always backed Pakistan when it came to Kashmir. Pakistan being an Islamic nation was held in much higher esteem and importance than India. India was being taken for granted. Frustrated by this attitude, India finally established formal relations with Israel. However India had a secret relationship with Israel established long before that. Time and again Israel has proved to be a valuable partner by Providing India with intelligence at key moments. The relationship with Israel really took off to reach unprecedented heights during the time of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee led NDA government, which had always supported relations with the Israeli sate. Today, Israel trains many Indian intelligence officers as well as specialized commando units. Mossad and RAW have a long tradition of intelligence sharing. Israel is also the second biggest arms supplier to India, just behind Russia, and a good deal more dependable than Russia, I might add. Israeli technology is also a good deal superior to Russian Technology. Another point that affects both countries directly is the rise of Islamic terrorism. India and Israel are both surrounded by hostile Islamic nations, and this fact makes them natural allies. India and Israel also have big collaborations in the field of space science, aerospace, nanotechnology, biotechnology among others. Israel is now poised to become India's leading defense supplier. And allying itself with Israel will also mean India's formal induction into the US led block, Such associations have their advantages as far technology transfer is concerned, something which India is in need in.
In light of these facts and many more which I am just too lazy to research and write, India's choices at this critical juncture will influence the unfolding of world affairs in the coming decades. The great diplomatic dance has begun and it is time for India to tango.
Both nations are strategically very important to India. Choosing any over the other may mean permanent losses of the resources supplied by that nation to India. However, this is a chance for India to assert itself on the international scene. USA is now lobbying hard for India to support the sanctions against Iran. This in itself speaks volumes about India's growing importance in the region and also in the entire world. Such a scenario would have been unimaginable 2 decades ago. And any attempt by India to walk the middle ground and adopt a neutral line as it always does, may seen by other nations as a sign that India lacks the political will to adopt a more significant role in world affairs. The whole situation looks to be spiraling out of control, with Israel and Iran now fighting their battles on the streets of Delhi. India is now among the last few nations of economic importance that have still not complied with the US sponsored sanctions on Iran. It shall be very interesting to see, exactly how does the Indian government handle this situation. Will India resort to pussyfooting again or will the government finally grow some backbone and take some action keeping in mind long term advantages, not short term gains.
Both Israel and Iran hold significant importance in India's long term goals. Lets start with Iran. The most important factor here is oil. India imports 12% of its crude from Iran. Several Indian refineries are geared up to process the kind of crude that Iran exports. Refitting all these refineries to process other types of crude will consume a lot of national resources. Indeed! Finding a dependable supplier at such short notice will indeed be a difficult task. Although Saudi Arabia at America's behest has offered to step in and fill the void left by the Iranians, working out a deal with them will be time consuming, and then there is the question about retrofitting the refineries to deal with Saudi oil, a herculean task! India and Iran are currently in the midst of discussing a big oil deal which involves laying a pipeline on the Arabian Sea bed. Secondly, Iran is currently India's only access point to Afghanistan, a country in who's security and stability India has a huge stake. Iran also has a shared interest along with India to prevent the Taliban from retaking Afghanistan when the US army abandons Afghanistan to it's own fate. Iran along with India had supported the Northern Alliance which were fighting the Taliban pre 1999. Thirdly, Iran, together with Afghanistan also provide India with an access to the mineral rich central Asia. India would also not be in favor of China stepping into any void left behind by India's departure. So, basically Iran is very important in the fulfillment of India's immense energy requirements, and also in meeting regional security requirements of India. And I haven't even spoken about the Sunni-Shia angle, which make Iran a natural enemy of Pakistan, a Sunni dominated country widely known for the persecution on Shia's.
And now Israel. Israel is perhaps the most important partner of India in the field of counter-terrorism. There has been unprecedented co-operation between Indian and Israeli intelligence since 1960's- an era before Israel was even allowed to open up an embassy in India. India and Israel started formal diplomatic relations only in 1992, after years of ineffective pro Arab policies. The Indian government had for years supported the Palestinian cause whole-heatedly in the hope of Arab support for India's Kashmir cause. But this policy bore no fruit, as the Arab countries always backed Pakistan when it came to Kashmir. Pakistan being an Islamic nation was held in much higher esteem and importance than India. India was being taken for granted. Frustrated by this attitude, India finally established formal relations with Israel. However India had a secret relationship with Israel established long before that. Time and again Israel has proved to be a valuable partner by Providing India with intelligence at key moments. The relationship with Israel really took off to reach unprecedented heights during the time of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee led NDA government, which had always supported relations with the Israeli sate. Today, Israel trains many Indian intelligence officers as well as specialized commando units. Mossad and RAW have a long tradition of intelligence sharing. Israel is also the second biggest arms supplier to India, just behind Russia, and a good deal more dependable than Russia, I might add. Israeli technology is also a good deal superior to Russian Technology. Another point that affects both countries directly is the rise of Islamic terrorism. India and Israel are both surrounded by hostile Islamic nations, and this fact makes them natural allies. India and Israel also have big collaborations in the field of space science, aerospace, nanotechnology, biotechnology among others. Israel is now poised to become India's leading defense supplier. And allying itself with Israel will also mean India's formal induction into the US led block, Such associations have their advantages as far technology transfer is concerned, something which India is in need in.
In light of these facts and many more which I am just too lazy to research and write, India's choices at this critical juncture will influence the unfolding of world affairs in the coming decades. The great diplomatic dance has begun and it is time for India to tango.
